Pop Quiz: What’s The Most Asymmetric Energy Play?
First, some fun facts regarding the Pareto distribution: Business: the top few customers account for a bulk of the profits Insurance: a small number of big claims account for a bulk of payments Settlement: a small number of cities include…
Near-Term Outlook...
There are three key scheduled events between now and the end of the year. In chronological order, this weekend G20 meeting is first. It will shape expectations for trade tensions between the US and China, with extensive secondary impact. Saudi...
Greenback is Softer but the Market may be Getting Ahead of Itself...
Overview: Global equities paid no mind to the losses seen in the US before the weekend. After falling for three weeks, Asian equities rallied, led by a recovery in technology. The Hang Seng set the pace with a 1.7% gain, but...
Powell and Draghi, Xi and Trump...
The investment climate will be shaped by three events next week. ECB President Draghi’s testimony before the European Parliament to kick-off the week. Fed Chairman Powell speaks to the NY Economic Club in the middle of the week. Presidents Trump...
Dollar: Range-Bound or Trending?...
The US dollar had a good week, appreciating against all the major currencies but the Swiss franc, and most emerging market currencies, with a couple of notable exceptions, including the Turkish lira and the South African rand. However, the dollar’s...
Friday...
Overview: The US dollar is firmer against most of the major currencies. Japanese and Indian markets were closed for holidays and a weaker than expected flash EMU PMI helped keep the euro pinned near this week’s lows. Although the EU seemed...
Cool Video: CNBC Squawk Box...
I was part of the “Trading Block” on CNBC earlier today. The sharp fall in stocks and oil would have led many, like Joe, to anticipate dollar weakness. Instead, the dollar rallied. Perhaps, I suggested, the dollar was acting like...
A Semblance of Stability Returns...
Overview: Yesterday’s frenzy has burnt itself out for the moment. Equities began recovering in Asia after early losses. China, including Hong Kong, Singapore, and Thailand closed higher and European markets are recouping some of yesterday’s decline. The Dow Jones Stoxx is trying...
Why We Sold Apple Stock...
Our firm bought Apple shares for clients’ portfolios in 2013, and we are used to being a contrarian voice when it comes to the stock (read here and here) — we loved it when it was hated. Now we are...
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